There’s been a lot of buzz for a while about the alleged next version of Windows, the mythical Windows 12. Moreover, Microsoft’s trust is at an all time low, they’re getting overrun by protesters, and they’re hyping up the next steps of AI. We won’t know what Windows will look like in 30 years, but we will know what it won’t be like. So rather than make claims that Microsoft could attempt to destroy Linux again or the imminent next version of Windows, let’s examine what the proverbial Windows could be.

Related article: Microsoft accidentally revealed a UI design prototype for the next version of Windows at Ignite 2022 - Zac Bowdin, Windows Central

The Inciting Videos

Windows 12 wouldn’t even be a topic of conversation if we didn’t mention two videos uploaded to the Windows YouTube channel: one by David Weston, one of Microsoft’s security VPs also known as DWIZZZLE on the streets. The inciting video was included DWIZZZLE opened with something absurd.

The world of sort of mousing around and keyboarding around and typing, will feel as alien, as it does to Gen Z to sort of use DOS.

David “DWIZZZLE” Weston, Microsoft Windows 2030 Vision with David Weston

Now before we analyze this, I don’t think Microsoft put a lot of thought into this video. Every summer, Microsoft uploads cringey videos across their YouTube channels with very little thought or substance. The name on the clapper board of this video is Tyler Kalberg, a freelance photographer, because Microsoft laid off all their videographers.

Furthermore, it’s clear whoever edited the video skipped over a ton of points that DWIZZZLE and admins should be interested in. Things like improving application security, quantum cryptography resilience, and memory safety are strong topics that need attention. Unfortunately, the camera cuts away after all of them and we don’t get to hear more because apparently we don’t have enough time. Perhaps the filming was going long, but there were also multiple hard cuts throughout the video awkwardly bridging DWIZZZLE’s talking points together. Some were clearly cutting out the interviewer or filler, but it’s hard to know for sure.

Later in August, Pavan Davuluri, recently promoted to president of Windows and devices, also reiterated what DWIZZZLE said at a much less exaggerated degree in an August podcast. The problem is to get there, you need to listen to him get asked meaningless questions about his hobbies for 10 minutes. Pavan is the most interesting because he stands the best chance at unifying the fragmentation of the Windows team. He still can’t get over the humiliation of introducing someone with the wrong name during Build 2 years ago though.

Historical Reputation

When we talk about Windows 12, it’s important to remember the past, but also the trajectory of Microsoft as a company. Many people are quick to remember the prominence of Windows in Microsoft of the 90s, but things have changed since then.

Rewind time and go back to Microsoft Build 2014. Many reviewers were anticipating enhancements to Windows 8’s touch screen focus and the promise of “Project Threshold” or Windows 9. For many reasons like the branding conflict with the original Windows 9 and critical reception of Windows 8, Microsoft believed the leap to Windows 10 was justified, especially to announce the new Start Menu with eager applause.

Of course, Windows 10 wasn’t without its wrinkles either. The after effects of Windows Phone still lingered and despite hopes of Microsoft’s faithful, the Windows phone couldn’t compete against Android and iPhone. Privacy hit a new all time low with criticism emerging from European regulation bodies. This also meant Windows under Terry Myerson went from being the center of the company to one of the most neglected portions of the company.

Instead, Microsoft decided to pursue greener pastures with the ever-elusive computer in the cloud. So imagine the world’s surprise when a new event deep into the COVID-19 pandemic that lagged out so hard nobody except CNET could watch it came out. Windows was making another leap with Windows 11. Throughout this demo, it became apparent someone at Microsoft (probably Panos Panay) burned with Apple envy. A new interface that moved the taskbar into the center. New UI elements that hide the barely cobbled together Vista and XP elements if you look deep enough. Most of all, a greater focus on security with stricter hardware requirements for TPM-based security and modern processors.

The Importance of Vision Casting

Stepping back for a moment, let’s take what we know about Microsoft’s plans for Windows 12 and compare these to both Windows 10 and 11. An aspect of corporate America, but a major change Microsoft brought to Windows 10 has nothing to do with the technical merits of Windows—it’s vision casting.

For example, Windows 10 had a huge burden to fill to combat the negative feedback of Windows 8 across the board. At the same time, Windows 10 also needed to focus more on the business experience and the different use-cases of Windows, whether that was in the cloud, a laptop, or an embedded device. That’s why Windows 10 put a big focus into decoupling apps from the base operating system and a deeper focus on other Microsoft products like integrating OneDrive.

Windows 12 on the other hand has to overcome a different problem. The opposition to Windows 11 in the enterprise could not be more apparent. I work for a smaller sized company in the United States with a little under 100 employees, but moving to Windows 11 took around 2 years despite having compatible hardware. At scale, it’s clear from market share that Windows 11 is only going to win by obsoleting computers and being the default on newly purchased PCs. Lenovo and Dell are making bank on these upgrades!

ARM & Access

There’s also the almost tarnished consumer brand that is the Copilot+ PC. Power users will quake at the idea of a PC featuring Recall capabilities and potential privacy concerns, but the reality is Windows has always invaded their users’ and your privacy. The real thing consumers need to be annoyed about is using Recall is incredibly taxing on your battery despite its benefits and it’s arbitrarily restricted to systems featuring integrated neural processing units (NPUs). It’s created a world of haves and have nots within Windows, but this might be kick that Microsoft’s users need, so hear me out.

Satya Nadella is an ambitious guy who has made Microsoft a trillion dollar company from the former nearly bankrupt company that bet everything on the home computer. Microsoft has a lion’s share of the cloud, beating out every cloud provider except Amazon Web Services (AWS) in market share. They profited from the promise of artificial intelligence by investing deep into the tech and into OpenAI, the biggest household name of AI chatbots. They’ve effectively manipulated politics in their favor while avoiding the ire of the current United States administration (for the most part).

PRES. TRUMP: What about Microsoft? That’s a big number.

SATYA NADELLA: Each year, we are close to, in the United States, around 75-80 billion dollars.

PRES. TRUMP: Good. Very good. Thank you very much.

CNBC-TV18 - US President Donald Trump Hosts Tech CEOs Dinner At White House |Zuckerberg, Cook, Gates Attend N18G at 4:25

The thing Microsoft is missing is a use for AI, but also the hardware. For years, the chipmaker Intel has held a stranglehold on PC makers and has tried and failed to innovate in the era of mobile devices. More than just Intel, Microsoft has used the requirements of the Copilot+ PCs to force vendors to make better computers and not charge less than $1000 for bad hardware. This is where the requirements for NPUs and the ARM architecture come in; they attempt to solve the issues of the battery life and Microsoft’s usecase for AI.

Lastly, it’s about accessibility. While Windows hasn’t been the worst platform of accessibility (that award goes to Linux), the advent of AI has brought the prospect of a new form of computing that would be greatly enhanced by the Copilot+ PC. Something missing from the Mac and Linux users, native dictation and the integration of AI into the desktop workflow. AI will open new ways to use the computer, whether those methods are productive or not, only time will tell.

What Does This Mean For You?

This is a long way of saying Windows 12 or Windows 2030 is irrelevant to you. Originally, the intent was the Copilot+ PC was supposed to be Windows 12 (codenamed Hudson Valley), but that didn’t happen. We’ve been told the AI bubble will burst, but that hasn’t happened yet. Seeing how well Windows 11 adoption is going, it’s likely going to be years, 5 years or more, before Microsoft gets the chance to do something like release a new named version of Windows again. It’s going to be a long time before Windows 12 is relevant to you.

There is one thing that continues to get worse and that’s Windows itself. While I believe Windows raising the bar of PCs is commendable, everything else about Windows is poorly executed or littered with ads. And maybe the end of Windows 10 is your kick in the pants to get that shiny new MacBook or switch to Linux. But Microsoft doesn’t care. They already ignored your feedback about Windows 11! They don’t care you’ll leave.

Fun fact to make you hate Microsoft more: Jacqueline Scott Corley, the judge that presided over the United States Activision Blizzard anti-trust case, has a major conflict of interest—her son works for Microsoft.

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